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Gamers can be a fickle bunch. Whether they use PCs or consoles to get their fix, they always have one eye fixed firmly on the future. Sure, this gaming PC or console, and the games I’m playing on it are cool, but when is the next leap forward likely to happen, and what will it look like?
While PC gaming is constantly evolving, consoles tend to come in generations. This means that the hardware leaps forward in a huge stride rather than a series of incremental steps. But how long is the current console generation (which includes the PlayStation 5, Xbox Series X, and Nintendo Switch) likely to last?
Which Consoles Belong to the Ninth Generation?
It should be noted at this point that it’s slightly ambiguous about which consoles actually belong to this generation. The PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X|S are shoe-ins for obvious reasons. However, the Nintendo Switch technically belongs to the 8th generation alongsidethe PS4 (a console I still use to this day)and Xbox One due to it being released in 2017.
Nintendo has always plowed its own furrow to some extent, as while Sony and Microsoft are directly competing with each other, Nintendo stands alone. This is thanks to its legion of loyal fans, original IP that has spanned decades, and unique consoles (starting with the Wii). So, the fact that the Switch straddles two generations isn’t all that surprising.
Then there is the new generation of PC handhelds led by the Steam Deck to consider, as these also belong to the ninth generation of games consoles. If you’re looking to buy a Steam Deck, check outthe different Steam Deck modelshere.
How Long Have Previous Generations Lasted?
To try and predict how long this console generation will last, we need to first look back at how long previous console generations lasted. This is no easy task though, as games consoles date back to 1972, and those early generations bear little resemblance to more recent generations.
There’s also the issue of where you measure from and to. The release of the first console of that generation to the discontinuation of the last? Or something more nuanced?
For me, only the fifth generation and later counts when we’re using the duration of past console generations to help us figure out how long the current generation will last. This is because the range of consoles previous to that were so varied as to make the timelines confusing. However, once Sony entered the fray with the PlayStation, things settled down somewhat.
So, based purely on the previous four generations, the average length of a console generation is seven years. The ninth generation of home consoles began in 2020 when both the PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X were released. So in 2024, we’re at four years and counting.
Why Some Console Generations Last Longer Than Others
As you can see above, not all console generations have lasted the same time, with some outliving others. But why is that?
This all comes down to the fact that not all console generations are equal. The reasons for this include the success of the consoles involved in each generation, and one console dominating over the others. This causes the manufacturers involved to change course and release new hardware sooner or later than they had originally anticipated.
The PlayStation and PlayStation 2 are the prime examples of one console far outselling the competition. Sony battered everyone once it entered the hardware scene in 1994/1995, with the PlayStation selling 102 million units, and the PlayStation 2 selling 155 million units.
Another thing to consider here is Nintendo’s willingness to go its own way. Nintendo actually has a history of changing hardware sooner than the competition, with an average of 5-6 years between home consoles. However, the Switch has been with us since 2017, meaning that it has been with us for 7 years and counting.
Why This Console Generation May Last Longer
There are several reasons to believe that this particular console generation could last longer than most of, or even all, the previous generations.
First up is how expensive it has become to develop and manufacture the hardware involved. The PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X are essentially gaming PCs wrapped up in user-friendly cases, and most estimates suggest that both Sony and Microsoft are losing money on the hardware.
There’s also the switch from HDDs to SSDs (Hard Disk Drives and Solid State Drives). Thanks to the countless moving parts involved, HDDs wear out over time. Whereas, SSDs should last longer thanks to the lack of moving parts. For this reason, the hardware should last longer overall.
Lastly, there is the rise of cloud gaming, which makes the hardware you own and play games on less important than it has ever been before. And in this brave new world where even high-end games can be streamed on most devices, there’s less appetite (and demand) for the likes of Sony and Microsoft to release new hardware.
That isn’t to say that Sony and Microsoft aren’t already planning their next releases.
In February 2024,Bloombergquoted Sony senior vice president Naomi Matsuoka as saying that the “PS5 will enter the latter stage of its life cycle,” with the company expecting sales to start falling.
Meanwhile, at around the same time, as reported byThe Shortcut, president of Xbox Sarah Bond said on the Official Xbox podcast that Microsoft is “moving full speed ahead on our next generation hardware, focused on delivering the biggest technological leap ever in a generation.”
My Best Guess of How Long This Generation Will Last
So, with everything we have learned above, what is my best guess as to how this current generation of consoles will last?
Based on past patterns coupled with how this generation has played out so far, it could last anywhere from 7-10 years. And I would narrow that down to eight years. Which, given that both the PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X were released in 2020, would mean new consoles arriving in 2028.
This is based on the previous four generations lasting an average of seven years, coupled with this generation being likely to last slightly longer due to the reasons outlined above.
However, the obvious caveat here is that Nintendo is likely to strike much sooner. Even withthe Switch OLED modelnow available, the Switch is starting to show its age, so there’s no way that Nintendo will hang on another four years. In fact, I suspect that a successor to the Switch is likely to arrive in 2025 or 2026.
